# Run a forecast

> Pick a run mode, start a forecast and follow it while it researches.

Part of the Prolepsia docs: Forecasts.
Video: [Run a forecast](https://app.prolepsia.com/docs/videos/run-a-forecast.mp4), 1:26, with [captions](https://app.prolepsia.com/docs/videos/run-a-forecast.vtt).
This guide as a web page: https://app.prolepsia.com/docs/run-a-forecast

## Steps

1. Open the question in the Library.
2. Open the run mode picker next to Run forecast, and slide to the run mode you want. The picker shows the price in credits and your balance.
3. Choose Run forecast.
4. Follow the live page. It shows each stage, what the forecast is doing now and the sources it has read.
5. When it says Your forecast is ready, choose Open forecast.

## Good to know

- Choosing a run mode spends nothing. Your organization pays when the forecast starts, and a forecast that fails gives its credits back.
- You do not need to keep the page open. Prolepsia emails you when the forecast is ready.
- Once you have connections or forecast presets, a button next to the run mode picks the preset and the connections this forecast may use.

## What the video says

Open the question you want to forecast. This one has no forecast yet. First, pick a run mode. The run mode sets how deep the forecast goes. Light is a quick first look in about five minutes. Moderate adds some expert research. Standard, Deep and Max use stronger models and more research, and they take longer. The picker shows the price of the mode in credits, and how many credits you have. Choosing a mode spends nothing. Click Run forecast to start. Your organization pays the credits, and a forecast that fails gives them back. The live page shows each stage of the forecast: getting ready, researching, combining the answers, and ready. Below the stages, it lists what the forecast is doing right now, and the sources it has read so far. You do not need to keep this page open. Prolepsia emails you when the forecast is ready. A real forecast takes from about five minutes to an hour and a half. This demo runs faster. When it is ready, open the forecast. For a numeric question, the answer is a range of likely values. The median sits in the middle, and the shaded band holds the values with an eighty percent chance.

Every Prolepsia guide is listed at https://app.prolepsia.com/llms.txt.